"The Good Judgment Project
is an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and
some people inside the intelligence community. What they aim to prove is
that average, ordinary people in large groups and access just to Google
search can predict far more accurately events of geopolitical importance
than smart intelligence analysts with access to actual classified
information.
In fact there is a clearly identified top 1 percent of the
3000 predictors group, who have been identified as super-forecasters:
people whose predictions are reportedly 30 percent better than
intelligence officers."
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